In 2019 and 2020, 5G wireless technology will have three major applications. First, 5G will be used for truly mobile connectivity, mainly by devices such as smartphones.
Second, 5G will be used to connect “less mobile” devices, mainly 5G modems or hotspots: dedicated wireless access devices, small enough to be mobile, that will connect to the 5G network and then connect to other devices over Wi-Fi technology.
Finally, there will be 5G fixed-wireless access (FWA) devices, with antennas permanently mounted on buildings or in windows, providing a home or business with broadband in place of a wired connection.
All of these 5G devices will operate over traditional and new cellular radio frequency bands in the low- (sub-1 GHz, such as 700 MHz), mid- (1–6 GHz, such as around 3.5-3.8 GHz), and millimeter-wave (mmWave, such as 28 GHz) ranges.
While smartphones, modems, and hotspots will mostly use low- and mid-range frequencies, 5G FWA devices will often operate using mmWave technology, which offers the potential for higher bandwidth than sub-6 GHz frequencies.
Because mmWave frequencies struggle to penetrate walls or pass through certain types of glass, many 5G FWA devices will require mounting antennas on windows or a building’s exterior wall.
5G Smartphones
Making a 5G-ready handset is more complicated than one might think due to differences in two critical components of a 5G versus a 4G phone: the radio modem and the antenna. The modem in a smartphone usually sits on the same chip as the processor.
A bundled 4G chip for a highend phone cost an estimated US$70 in 2018; the 5G version will almost certainly cost more. A leading modem/processor manufacturer has announced that its 5G chipset will be ready in 2019, although supply constraints suggest that wide availability will not occur until the second half of the year.
The bigger challenge is designing an antenna for 5G.
Since the new radio technology will launch both at frequencies around 28 GHz (which require narrow-beam, high-gain antenna systems made up of multiple combined radiators) and at frequencies below 6 GHz (for which single-element, low-gain, omnidirectional antennas can be used), the design of a 5G antenna is much more complicated than that for a 4G antenna.
The antennas and front end of a leading-edge 4G smartphone typically cost around US$20 in 2018, and 5G solutions, expected to be available in 2019, will almost certainly carry a higher price—possibly much higher.
Putting these factors together, a 5G-ready phone’s component costs in 2019 will likely be US$40–50 higher than for a comparable 4G phone— for a phone with relatively few networks worldwide to connect to, and likely with only narrow coverage even where available.
There’s one good piece of news, however: Battery life will likely be a smaller issue than it was when 4G was launched. Chipmakers have said that they expect battery life for the first 5G phones to be more or less in line with that of current 4G handsets.
5G Wireless Modems/Hotspots
The first 4G network was activated in December 2009. From 2010 through 2012, retailers sold tens of millions of 4G modems/hotspots, generating hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue for both the device makers and the operators charging wireless subscription fees.
These small devices, about the size of a hockey puck, sold for US$200–300 each at first but rapidly dropped to under US$100. They were portable, and people used them to connect phones, computers, tablets, and other devices to the Internet.
But their sales began to decline as more and more 4G handsets entered the market, particularly as users were able to use later-model smartphones as 4G hotspots to wirelessly tether other devices to their phones instead of needing standalone modems.
We expect the 5G equivalent of the 4G modem/hotspot to be approximately as successful, bridging the gap between when 5G networks are turned on and when 5G handsets become widely available and affordable for casual users.
The two largest American carriers have already publicly discussed selling modems before mobile handsets, and one major chip manufacturer’s new 5G chipset is so large that it is unlikely to fit in a smartphone but can easily be used for modems.
Since modems consist of just a radio, antennas, and a battery, they cost much less than smartphones, with no need for a screen (usually a phone’s most expensive component), camera, or sleek body.
Thus, although handsets will rapidly overtake them in the first year or two following launch, modems will likely be an important part of the nascent 5G market.
It should be noted that although the signal to the modem will be on 5G, the signal from the puck to the devices it connects (smartphone, PC, etc.) will be over Wi-Fi or other local-area wireless technology, which means that speeds could be degraded depending on the technology.
5G FWA Devices
As discussed above, a small antenna about the size of a hardcover book can be placed on the inside or outside of a home or business window that has an unobstructed line of sight to a 5G mmWave transmitter not more than about 200–500 meters away.
(That mmWave transmitter will usually be located on a commonplace utility pole, not an expensive special-purpose tower, and will likely use multiple bands, both mmWave and sub-6GHz.)
If that transmitter is connected to a high-speed fiber network, the subscriber will enjoy speeds of hundreds of Mbps, with possible peaks of gigabits per second.
The antenna will connect or be attached to a modem/router that distributes the high-speed signal inside the home or business over Wi-Fi, connecting smartphones that otherwise would not achieve 5G speeds, as well as computers, tablets, smart TVs, and other connected devices.
Some American carriers have already begun their 5G launch on a limited basis in a few cities using both mmWave and traditional frequencies.
There have also been many non-US trials of 5G FWA devices using mmWave; however, at this time, the only firm outside the United States that is definitely planning a 2019 launch is an Australian operator.
Note that the markets for both 5G modems/hotspots and 5G FWA devices are about providing wireless connectivity as an alternative to traditional home broadband, rather than providing an alternative to 4G for mobility.
In the long term, the 5G mobile market (for handsets, Internet of Things devices, and connected vehicles) will likely be measured in terms of billions of connections, but in 2019, most 5G customers will likely use 5G as an alternative to wireline, not as a replacement for 4G.
Used in this way, the applicability of 5G FWA over mmWave varies considerably by country. In places where fiber-to-the-home or other high-speed Internet service is ubiquitous and affordable, FWA does not always deliver a particular advantage (although there may be some situations in which 5G FWA offers higher speeds and/or capacities than some fiber solutions).
It is in places where wireline is less widely available and/or more expensive, or where wireless capacity in the traditional cellular radio bands is already congested, that mmWave solutions will likely be more useful.
