Key Takeaways
- The US carried out a third consecutive night of strikes against Iranian military targets on July 13, with CENTCOM saying the goal is to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
- UKMTO confirmed a tanker was hit by a missile roughly 13 nautical miles southeast of Limah, Oman, on the strait’s southern outbound route — part of a string of vessel attacks in recent weeks.
- Brent crude jumped more than 9.5% in a single session on July 13 to settle near $83, and continued climbing into July 14, trading in the mid-to-upper $80s per barrel.
- Bahrain’s air raid sirens sounded for a third time as Iran targeted US-linked facilities across Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, and the UAE; Iran’s parliament is separately advancing legislation to formalize its authority over the strait.
- War-risk marine insurance premiums, already elevated from earlier in the conflict, remain a critical bottleneck — in some periods this year quoted at multiples of pre-crisis rates — making the insurance market as decisive as the military situation for whether ships actually move.
Why This Matters Now
A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, reached last month under a memorandum of understanding, has effectively collapsed. What started as scattered attacks on commercial vessels has escalated into a direct exchange between US and Iranian forces, a renewed American blockade threat, and a push by President Trump to impose a 20% toll on cargo transiting the strait — all while roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade sits in the balance.
Third Night of US Strikes, Iranian Retaliation Across the Gulf
US Central Command said it began launching its third consecutive night of strikes against Iran at 4:45 p.m. ET on July 13, targeting coastal surveillance systems and Iran’s drone and missile capabilities. CENTCOM framed the campaign as an effort to stop Iran from attacking “innocent civilians and commercial shipping” moving through Hormuz.
President Trump told radio host Hugh Hewitt the US would “hit them very hard tonight, and we’re going to hit them hard tomorrow,” while declining to detail operational specifics. Iran responded by striking US-linked facilities and radar sites across Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, and Oman, according to Iranian state media, prompting air raid sirens in Bahrain for the third time and Kuwaiti forces to report intercepting incoming threats. The United Arab Emirates also said it came under missile fire.
Tankers Hit Near Oman, One Crew Member Killed
The maritime picture darkened further over the weekend. The UAE defense ministry said two of its tankers, al-Bahiya and Mombasa, were struck by Iranian missiles while in Omani territorial waters, killing an Indian crew member aboard the Mombasa. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, in turn, claimed it had “struck and disabled” two unnamed “rogue supertankers” it accused of ignoring warnings and attempting to cross a “mined route” with their navigation systems switched off.
Separately, UKMTO confirmed a tanker was hit by a missile about 13 nautical miles southeast of Limah, Oman, while transiting the strait’s southern outbound route — an incident dated to July 13 and disclosed Tuesday. It’s the latest in a lengthening list of vessel strikes stretching back to early July, when two tankers, the Qatari LNG carrier Al Rekayat and the Saudi-flagged Wedyan, were also hit.
Oil Markets React Sharply
Brent crude’s reaction has been immediate and large. The benchmark soared 9.59% on July 13 to settle at $83.30 a barrel — its biggest single-day percentage gain in more than six years — after Trump said the US would reimpose a blockade on Iranian ports and seek a 20% fee on other cargo passing through Hormuz. Momentum carried into Tuesday, with Brent futures trading in the mid-to-upper $80s during the session. WTI, the US benchmark, moved in tandem, trading in the high $70s to around $80.
For context on scale: a 20% toll on a supertanker’s cargo would run roughly $32 million at current prices, dwarfing the up-to-$2 million transit charges Iran has floated in the past. US gasoline prices have ticked up too — AAA put the national average at $3.87 a gallon, about 8 cents higher than a week earlier. Shipping data firm Kpler said crossings through the strait have already dropped by more than half compared with the previous week.
Iran’s Parliament Moves to Formalize Control
Beyond the battlefield, Iran’s parliament has begun work on a bill described as governing the “management of the Strait of Hormuz” — an effort that would give legislative weight to Tehran’s practice of asserting authority over transit rights, tolls, and route restrictions in the waterway. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has separately accused Washington of violating the memorandum of understanding, pointing specifically to the clause covering the strait’s reopening.
The Insurance Bottleneck
Military escalation and oil price spikes get the headlines, but the marine insurance market has functioned as a parallel gatekeeper throughout this conflict. Lloyd’s Market Association has said war-risk rates “have moved as risk has moved,” with hull war-risk premiums for Hormuz transits described as approaching 5% of vessel value — a level one insurance expert called the new market norm. Earlier in the year, premiums briefly spiked far higher during acute flare-ups, and Lloyd’s Joint War Committee expanded its high-risk designation to cover the entire Persian Gulf. Washington’s Development Finance Corporation has already stood up a reinsurance facility to backstop coverage, underscoring how central the insurance question has become to whether ships move at all — regardless of what the militaries are doing.
FAQ
Is the Strait of Hormuz currently closed? Iran has at various points declared the strait closed or restricted to unauthorized routes, and crossings have fallen sharply, but the waterway has not been fully sealed — some vessels, including US-guided transits, continue to move through under elevated risk.
Why did oil prices jump so much in one day? Brent’s 9.6% single-day surge followed President Trump’s announcement that the US would reimpose a blockade on Iranian ports and seek a 20% toll on Hormuz shipping, compounding existing supply fears from the tanker attacks.
How much of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz? Roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil trade transits the strait, along with a large share of global LNG exports, making it one of the most consequential chokepoints in the global energy system.
Are commercial ships still able to get insurance to transit the strait? Yes, but at a steep cost — war-risk premiums have been running at multiples of pre-crisis levels, and some carriers have restricted or excluded coverage entirely during peak escalation periods.
What is the Iranian parliamentary bill about? It’s an effort to formally codify Iran’s claimed authority to manage transit, tolls, and access through the Strait of Hormuz — a legislative counterpart to the ad hoc restrictions Iran has already been enforcing.
Closing Analysis
The immediate open questions are whether the US strikes continue into a fourth night, whether Iran escalates against additional regional targets, and whether the reported Iranian parliamentary bill formalizes rules that harden into a longer-term standoff over transit fees. Markets will be watching for further war-risk insurance repricing and any signal from Washington on Strategic Petroleum Reserve use, though no drawdown has been announced as of this writing. This remains a developing story.
